ScotPHO reports and papers: document details

This report sets out projections for selected health behaviours in Scotland as a contribution to debate and thinking about monitoring health improvement trends over the next decade. The behaviours are those for which the Scottish Health Survey provides consistent data: tobacco smoking; physical activity; diet (5-a-day); body mass index; and alcohol consumption. We emphasise the uncertainty of the projections. They are based on only three data points - 1998, 2003 and 2008 (and only the last two for fruit and vegetable consumption) - which may not provide a stable baseline period. They also rely upon the standard caveat of 'all other things remain unchanged'. The projections are shown as a cone of uncertainty, becoming wider the more uncertainty there is around the projection. They are therefore primarily an exercise in examining the strengths and weaknesses of using the data as a means of considering future health behaviour trends.

The baseline behaviour trends show that the proportion of people leading lives that are smoke-free and physically active increased between 1998 and 2008 but fruit and vegetable consumption barely changed. The number of people with a healthy weight declined, but the rate of decrease has recently slowed. Although fewer people are making moderate use of alcohol, the trend has been particularly unstable. Inequalities appear to be narrowing for smoking and weight, static for fruit and vegetable consumption and widening for physical activity and excessive alcohol use.

In comparison with the modest degree of change seen in the decade to 2008, levels of uncertainty about the future are very high for most behaviours. This uncertainty is mainly due to the few data points in the baseline. It highlights the importance of maintaining key data sources, such as the Scottish Health Survey, in order to more accurately ascertain past trends and project future ones.

Healthy behaviour change in Scotland: can we project future trends using existing data?(1.4Mb)

Scottish Health Survey publications are available from the Scottish Health Survey publications page on the Scottish Government website.