Housing: availability and affordability

Demand for housing is increasing

The challenge of delivering sufficient affordable housing in a context of changing demographics, social trends and economic influences remains substantial. Across the period 2003 to 2023, the by around 304,500 homes, or 14 percent. In 2023 there were 2.54 million households in Scotland.

Changes in tenure

The relationship between tenure and the aspects of housing that influence health is complex but important, particularly in relation to health inequalities. For example, although recent policy and legislation has improved matters, tenants in the private rented sector have less security of tenure than social tenants.

Data from the 2023 Scottish Household Survey illustrate how the distribution of housing tenures in Scotland has changed since 1999/2000 (Chart 1):

Home ownership rates have remained relatively stable, at between 60% and 66%. (However, people living in deprived areas of Scotland were less likely to own a home in 2022 than in 2011. They remain less likely to own a home than people from non-deprived areas (Fraser of Allander Institute analysis of Census data, 2024)).
The private rented sector has more than doubled its overall share since 1999/2000, reaching 13% in 2023.
The biggest increase in private sector renting (from 14% to 36%) has been in the under 35 age group, many of whom are unable to afford their own home or to access social housing due to the high demand and associated long waiting lists.

In terms of aspirations, only 3% of householders report want to live in private rented accommodation, whilst 12% want to live in social rented housing. The vast majority (81%) aspire to home ownership.

Housing costs

Housing is the biggest cost that most households face, and can drive households into poverty. Where households are struggling with housing costs this will impact on their ability to afford other necessities required to support health and wellbeing.

Rents in the private rented sector are often higher than for social housing. Housing benefits don’t necessarily cover the full cost of rent, particularly in the private rented sector, and the shortfall can contribute to housing affordability problems.

Scottish Government poverty estimates for 2020-23:

Before housing costs, 19% of Scotland’s population (1,020,000 people each year) were living in relative poverty. After housing costs this increased to 21% (1,110,000 people each year).
For children, 23% were in relative poverty before housing costs (230,000 children each year). After housing costs this increased to 24% (240,000 children each year).
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation found that one in four people who rent their homes were driven into poverty only after accounting for their housing costs (Poverty in Scotland 2024).

A 2022 analysis by the Fraser of Allander Institute found that, since Scottish Devolution in 1999, housing costs as a proportion of income have fallen for all except those in the lowest income quintile. Housing costs – both relative and absolute – have increased for those in the social and private rented sector. The report found that housing costs are typically higher for younger age groups and minority ethnic households. A 2023 Joseph Rowntree Foundation report on housing affordability examines the policy options that could help increase affordability for renters.

Affordable housing supply

There is a need for more affordable housing so that everyone can have a home that meets their needs, without driving them into poverty. Affordable housing (e.g., social housing) and housing benefits aim to reduce housing-cost-induced poverty.

Currently, waiting lists for social rented housing are long: on 31 March 2023 there were over 175,000 applications for social housing, of which almost 130,000 (74%) were new applications (source: Scottish Government housing data, 2023).

In 2020, Shelter Scotland called for an additional 53,000 affordable homes to be delivered between 2021 and 2026 as part of efforts to tackle child poverty, meet housing needs, and help re-start the economy post-pandemic. It also highlighted the importance of considering how affordable houses are distributed within the community as well as the size, density, and type of dwellings built.

In 2021, the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government 2021-22 set a target to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032 of which at least 70% will be available for social rent and 10% will be in remote, rural and island communities (the Affordable Housing Supply Programme). Building new properties is the principal means of achieving this: Chart 2 illustrates the number of affordable homes completed between 2000/01 and 2023/24 (source: Scottish Government housing statistics, 2024).