ScotPHO reports and papers: document details

In this report, we present simple linear projections of smoking trends for the lifetime of the current smoking prevalence target for NHS boards. This provides an indication of the scale of change required to achieve the target. The core assumption in the projections is that past prevalence trends and levels of cessation activity continue unchanged from the baseline period (1999 to 2008). The projections suggest that the Scottish smoking prevalence rate could be around 24.2% in 2010 against a target of 22% (the published rate for 2008 is 25.2%). At board level, Lothian, Shetland and Orkney are projected to meet their 2010 smoking targets.

It should be noted that projections are not a reliable guide to the future. Their core assumption - that the past is a guide to the future - is invariably wrong to a greater or lesser extent. However, the projections do illustrate the scale of change required if aspirations are to become reality.

Smoking prevalence trends in Scotland: simple projections to 2010 (117kB)