Population: projections

Scotland

The latest set of 2020-based population projections for Scotland (Chart 1) produced by National Records of Scotland estimate that the total population of Scotland will rise from 5.48 million in 2028 before falling to to 5.39 million in 2045. 

Lower birth rates and an ageing population are key factors contributing to the latest published projections. However, it should be noted that these projections are very sensitive to relatively small changes in the underlying assumptions and should therefore be treated with caution. 

The main predicted changes in the age structure of Scotland's population are illustrated in Chart 2:

• the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 22% from 0.92 million in 2018 to 0.82 million by 2043.
• the number of people of working age is projected to decrease by 3.8% from 3.48 million in 2018 to 3.36 million in 2043.
• the number of people of pensionable age is projected to rise by 35.5% from 1.03 million in 2018 to 1.39 million in 2043.

Further information on population projections can be obtained from the NRS website under population projections.

By NHS board

The 2018-based population projections for NHS boards (Chart 3) show that between 2018 and 2043 the population of seven of the fourteen boards is predicted to reduce. Ayrshire & Arran has the largest projected drop of 28,000 people, followed by Highland which is projected to experience a reduction of 15,000 people. There are seven NHS boards where the population is projected to rise, with the largest overall rise in Lothian which is projected to have an additional 133,000 persons by 2043.

Chart 4 presents the percentage change in population for each NHS board predicted by the above projections. Lothian is projected to show the highest growth (14.9%), followed by Forth Valley (5.9%), over the period 2018 to 2043. In contrast the population of Western Isles is projected to drop by 16%, while the populations of Dumfries & Galloway and Ayrshire & Arran are projected to drop by 8.4% and 7.7% respectively.

Further details of these projections can be viewed on the NRS webpage sub-national population projections.

By council

The most recent NRS population projections for councils (Chart 5) show that between 2018 and 2043 the populations of 40% (13) of the 32 councils are predicted to rise, with the largest overall increase in number of persons predicted for Edinburgh City (68,000) and Glasgow City (36,000). The remaining 19 councils are projected to experience a drop in population size, with the largest overall reductions in four councils that lose between 12,000 and 13,000 people: Dumfries and Galloway, North Ayrshire, Inverclyde and Argyll and Bute.

Chart 6 shows the predicted percentage change in population by council between 2018 and 2043. The largest percentage increase in population are projected for Midlothian (31%) and East Lothian (15.1%). In contrast, the largest percentage reductions in population are projected for Inverclyde (-16.2%) and Na h-Eileanan Siar (-16%).

Further details of projections can be obtained from the NRS webpage sub-national population projections.