Migration: policy context
The Scottish Government has acknowledged for some time the 'demographic challenge' of an ageing population and the need to attract more people of working age to Scotland. Previous government targets included one 'to match average European (EU-15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017'. The population of Scotland has increased every year in the last two decades and is now at its highest ever level: 55,479,900 at mid-2021, a figure which is 400,000 higher than in 2000. Net migration into Scotland has been the major contributor to population growth in this period and in recent years when deaths have outnumbered births, it is migration that has maintained population growth.
The accession of the A8 countries - Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia - to the EU in 2004 resulted in an increase in migration to Scotland, with particularly large in-migration from Poland. In June 2020, there were an estimated 231,000 EU citizens living in Scotland, alongside an estimated 178,000 other international migrants. The 409,000 non-British nationals living in Scotland at this point in time represented 8% of Scotland's population.
The UK and Scottish Government’s commitments to receive asylum seekers and refugees have also added to the Scottish population. Up-to-date and accurate figures on refugees and asylum seekers in Scotland are difficult to obtain. According to Home Office statistics, in December 2016 there were 3,350 asylum seekers in Scotland and others have estimated that Scotland hosts approximately 10% of the UK’s asylum seekers, who have been dispersed by the UK Home Office to Glasgow since 1999. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, UK and Scottish Government schemes have been launched to house Ukrainean refugees and over 21,000 people have been offered a place of sanctuary in Scotland.
Immigration has been the major driver in the growth of Scotland’s population over the last 18 years, with net migration exceeding 10,000 people, annually, since 2004. The 2018-based population projections for Scotland from the National Records of Scotland forecast that Scotland’s population will rise by 2.5% in the next 25 years to reach 5.57 million in 2043. However, these projections are subject to a degree of uncertainty, given they are based on past trends and assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration. The combined impacts of Covid-19 (which restricted international travel) and the Brexit agreement (signed in January 2020) are likely to have contributed to the steep reduction in net migration into Scotland seen in 2019/20. Nevertheless, in the following year, net migration into Scotland rose again to nearly 28,000 people in 2020/21.
There has been considerable interest in understanding the latest migration trends for Scotland following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (EU). In 2019, the Scottish Government published a report by an independent Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population which looked specifically at how the ending of free movement and future UK Immigration policy will affect Scotland's devolved responsibilities: UK immigration policy after leaving the EU: impacts on Scotland's economy, population and society.
It is worth noting that following devolution, Section 5 of the 1998 Scotland Act reserved 11 key policy areas to Westminster, among them immigration, employment and social security, while devolving most services to the Scottish Parliament. As a result of this division, decisions about levels of migration and access to benefits are made by the UK government, while key services affected by migration, including health care, education, housing, children's services and policing are the responsibility of the devolved government.
A Scottish Government report published in 2016 evaluated the impacts of migrants and migration on Scotland’s economy, labour market, public services, communities and culture. More recently again in 2018, the Scottish Government published a discussion paper for the Scottish Parliament on Scotland's population needs and migration policy.
The Scottish Government, along with COSLA and the Scottish Refugee Council, have developed a range of policies to support refugees and asylum seekers to settle and make their homes in Scotland, recognising it is a human right to be able to seek asylum in another country. These include the 'New Scots refugee integration strategy 2018-2022’ which focuses on seven key themes: needs of asylum seekers; employability and welfare rights; housing; education; language; health and wellbeing; and, communities, culture and social connections.
