Migration: national trends

Chart 1 summarises national trends in migration and natural change (births minus deaths) in Scotland’s population over the last 68 years (1952/53 – 2020/21). 

In the ‘baby-boom’ years of the 1950s to mid-1960s, births exceeded deaths.  This positive natural change in the Scottish population partially balanced out the reduction in population due to migration out of Scotland. However, the trend in natural change from the mid-1960s until 1976 was downward because the birth rate was declining more rapidly than the death rate. Since 1976 the trend in natural change has fluctuated. For eight years between 2007 and 2014 natural change was again positive with the number of births in Scotland exceeding the number of deaths. However, in 2015, the numbers of deaths in Scotland rose and have remained higher than births since then. In the latest year, 2020-2021, there were 14,500 more deaths than births in Scotland. As in the previous year, the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has contributed to increased mortality and so to negative natural change.

The trend in net migration in Scotland has changed dramatically over the last 60 years. From the early 1950s to the end of the 1980s there was net migration out of Scotland.  This was followed by a dozen years where net migration fluctuated between small positive and negative gains in population. However, from 2001 onwards net migration has increased substantially and has exceeded 10,000 people, annually, over the last 18 years.

In 2019-20, however, the combined impacts of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic (which has restricted international travel) and the Brexit agreement signed in January 2020 are likely to have contributed to a slow-down in migration into Scotland. Nevertheless, in the most recent year shown, 2020-21, net migration rose again to nearly 28,000.  Approximately one third of this rise is due to net migration from other parts of the UK into Scotland and two thirds to net migration from other countries.

Notes:

The natural change data (births minus deaths) relate to calendar years, while the net migration statistics are based on moves between 01 July and 30 June of the given time period (e.g. statistics for 2020/2021 relate to moves that took place between 01 July 2020 and 30 June 2021).

Migration estimates are based on three main sources:

The National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) is used to calculate moves between NHS Board areas within the UK. It is also used to distribute estimates of international migration to NHS Board areas in Scotland.

Community Health Index (CHI) is used to estimate migration at Council area and below.

International Passenger Survey (IPS) provides information on moves into and out of Scotland with an origin or destination of outside the UK. However, the international migration estimates for the year ending June 2021 are using a different method to those previously published. They rely less on International Passenger Survey (IPS) data and make greater use of administrative data. This means that the latest figures on international migration may not be comparable with previous estimates produced from the IPS or more recently using some statistical modelling (for the year ending June 2020).

Net migration does not include movements to and from the Armed Forces. Asylum seekers are included in the estimates for all years. Refugees are included for 2015-16 estimates onwards.

More detailed migration data for and within Scotland are available from National Records of Scotland.