Oral health: adults - future projections

Data from the Scottish Health Survey, in conjunction with previous work at the UK level using data from the Adult Dental Health Surveys (ADHSs) (Steele et al, 2000), indicate that the proportion of adults retaining their natural teeth is likely to continue to grow substantially over time. Conversely, the proportion who are edentulous (with no natural teeth) is likely to decline. However, people who are edentulous will obviously remain so, and a small proportion - generally from more deprived socio-economic backgrounds - will continue to become edentulous. The replacement of missing teeth with partial dentures will continue to be a common pattern of treatment for the foreseeable future.

Data from the Scottish Health Surveys suggest that attitudes to dental care have changed significantly in the last 20 years, resulting in an increase in people retaining teeth into older age. Thus, the type of dental care required by older cohorts will reflect the changing and more complex dental care needs and expectations of forthcoming generations. These issues are likely to have a significant impact on future (increasing) demand for dental services.

Trends from the Scottish Health Surveys and Scottish data from previous ADHSs can be applied alongside population projections to predict future numbers of adults with certain dental characteristics. This provides some insight into the potential demand for dental services.